The provision of advice should adequately reflect assessment uncertainty. In addition to uncertainty in model estimates, there can also be uncertainty in the model structure. While sensitivity analysis can demonstrate the direction that advice would change under different model structures, there is currently no formal method to reflect this in the advice values.
WKENSEMBLE will focus on practicalities of providing advice based on model ensembles. To do this, the group will:
- identify how model ensembles could be implemented
- consider how model ensembles could affect reference points
- investigate what ensemble advice would look like
This work will build on lessons learned from existing examples of ensemble based modelling in ICES, NOAA and RFMOs, and the conclusions and recommendations from the JRC Exploratory Workshop on Model Ensembles.
The workshop takes place 11–15 May 2020 at ICES Headquarters in Copenhagen, Denmark. For registration, contact Lise Cronne at ICES Secretariat.
